Pest Cadbury
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The jobless raise in Uk is the result of the slowing economic growth which surge the companie to shed workers
The announced raise in the minimum wage to 5.35 in next October might not have a positive impact on this trend.
This slowing economic growth is the consequences of first a rise in petrol price which cut the margin of the company as well as the slow down in consumer spending due to first the increase of interest rates and the excessive debt of consumer built during the 5 previous year of economical growth
This slowing down economy will also be the cause of a loose in confidence in the economic and employment situation which in turn will increase this trend by cutting their spending and saving the money , waiting for better days.
The raise in unemployment might also be the consequence of the opening of the European community and therefore the labor force growing faster than the number of jobs available.
The businesses that will be affected by this situation might be the factories as there cost increase sharply with the raice in petrol price and the reduced demand(Factory has shed 75000 workers in the first quarter 2005
Also the car industry will be affected in the long term with a trend to smaller car which are more economic but also cheaper
Or even the traveling industry with flight providers and especially the lowcost which might have to cut their margin which are already tight
However this lose of confidence could also have a positive influence on the low cost business as the e-commerce which have seen a raise in their profit during the last chrismass and which carrying its growth at an average of 27%
The quotas imposed by Europe and USA to china regarding the textile importation lasting until 2008 will allow the european , USA factory but also any country to adapt to the new market after the huge surge in Chinese textile during the past few years (Around 500% of increase in Chinese textile importation in UK)
However the retailer fear that this quotas would affect their price and might not meet the demand as it could cause a shortage.
Japan seems to recover from the recession it has overcome the past few years. The second largest economy has boost its economy thanks to an healthy domestic demand and an improvement in look for exporters.
However the large surplus of the Japanese econmy might be affected by the raise in petrol price
The raise in age in most western country as well as the slowing birth rate
Will have big consequences on the economy:
First the pension..
Also it will have a incidence on business. Negative on the toys or sweet market as the demand might slow down, Positive for the businesses which targets the ageing population and also the private clinics
Finally it might have a positive influence on employment as there might be less demand than offer as people get retired.
The effort from the international community and especially the EU will probably help to reduce the pollution and help to cope with the predicted energy shortage . This is a major issue especially with some emerging country like chine which are growing fast as well as their need for energy.(China has a potential of a billion car )
Some of the measure like the co2 trading policy lauched in 2005 by the EU and targeting a reduction of 20% of CO2 emmission by 2020 have an effect of the cost of production du to the equipment