China as a SuperpowerChina as a SuperpowerINTRODUCTIONThe history of China is both fascinating and complex. Its culture has been described as both peaceful and warlike. China was created by conquest and has essentially been ruled by a series of warlords. However, China has also experienced periods of peace and active trade with its neighbors. There have also been extensive periods where China isolated itself from outside influence and became a closed society. These experiences have profoundly shaped Chinese culture and strategic thought. [3]
The last century has been extremely difficult for China. The occupation by the Japanese in the 1930s and 1940s and the civil war, which brought Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to power in 1949, were extremely turbulent times in Chinas history. From this civil war the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) emerged. However, this was the beginning of another period of isolation where China attempted to revitalize itself. Under Mao, China was successful in becoming self-sufficient in nearly all resources and technologies, however, it was twenty to thirty years behind modern technical standards.[4]
Following Maos death in 1976, the new leader, Deng Xiaoping, commenced a series of reforms that radically changed China. Deng encouraged international trade and allowed foreign capital investment. The result has been Chinas phenomenal entry into world markets and a booming economy. The specific aim of these policies was to obtain large foreign exchange earnings, which would allow China to both modernize and become more independent.[5] Following Dengs death in February 1997, the current leader, Jiang Zemin, consolidated his political power base with the completion of the CCPs Fifteenth Congress in September 1997. Under Jiangs leadership it looks like economic reforms will continue, however, there seems to be little prospect for political change. This is exemplified by his call for stricter control of the press.[6]
As China emerges as a global power it is important to understand what role it will play and the security perceptions it has of both Asia and the world. The most important issue for China today is political stability at home. Any attempt to influence the status quo is not welcome and is deemed to be interference in Chinas internal affairs. Many Chinese believe that the United States represents the core values of Western civilization and is in conflict with Eastern civilization which is represented by China. As a result, Chinese leadership views any American influence as a challenge to Chinas political stability.[7]
The Western view of Chinas emergence is mixed. Following a period of condemnation after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, Western countries have sought to normalize relations with China. Canadas policy has been to maximize trade and economic links while adopting a moderate, low-key approach in discussing human rights.[8] US-China relations have been more difficult. However, the US ultimately granted China most-favoured-nation (MFN) trading status and a 1995 decision determined that human rights would be no longer tied to commerce.[9] The issue of Chinas military modernization has attracted attention. Some analysts believe this modernization is overdue and is just updating old equipment. Others are concerned about the combined effect of this modernization and the assertive nature China has displayed recently concerning claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan.[10]
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that Chinas economic and military transformation, under the current Communist regime, has the potential to seriously threaten the future security of Canada and the West. The paper will look at both the economic and military reforms underway in China and the strategic direction they are taking. The Western strategic view of China will be presented. Potential problem areas will be investigated to reveal why China may adopt a threatening posture.
CHINESE ECONOMIC REFORMSThe economic reforms that were introduced by Deng Xiaoping in the late seventies have transformed the Chinese economy and produced a period of spectacular growth. Chinas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 9.3 percent between 1979-1993. The world experienced a growth rate of 2.6 percent for the same period. Chinas GDP has also quadrupled over a period of only fifteen years. It has also improved its status as a trading nation, rising to eleventh position from number thirty-seven in ten years. Another important fact is that China has accumulated a large foreign currency reserve and is second in the world to Japan. China has also taken advantage of foreign investment and is also rated second in the world, after the US. It
The Economic Research Institute has published an analysis of the most important issues in the economic and political life of China, including the economic stagnation of the Chinese middle class and the stagnation of the Chinese political class. Based on the latest national data in 1989, for example, its average per capita income has increased by around 100% since 1980 with many of its members living in urban areas. These statistics do not tell the final story—although the most recent data shows that the average living condition of the living population of Chinese households is a little worse than in Western Europe and the United States. It may also mean that the Chinese citizens who are still living in urban areas and working in the industrial or government sectors and who have been in their homes for a few years or two are less willing to invest their private capital in the projects of the economic reform. A recent study by the Ministry of Commerce from 2007 has shown that most of the young Chinese have left the countryside, while for some, the current generation is too young.
With the economic conditions expected to deteriorate, government spending and income are expected to have slowed considerably, while the percentage of the population under 40 working has increased. An increase in labor force participation is likely, as some of these younger workers and those with experience in managerial, business, government or administrative occupations are likely to become well-educated and work more for lower wage earners.
The decline in wages, especially for middle-aged workers has been particularly noticeable for female workers. While many of these women have gained a job or are looking for employment, many of them have left their homes as early at the point of departure for lower-level occupation. The decline in female middle-aged workers, who may have been able to find work more quickly after coming back in less than six years, is also very interesting. Between 1990 and 2007, the percentage of women working in government jobs as compared with men continued to fall, but remained mostly unchanged, even as the share of women working in non-government occupations increased. In 2012, women made up 15% of the workforce but had a lower share than did men in public office and in government positions.
In China, the majority of the population is male. The share of the working population earning less than $100,000/year is estimated to be 9.9% and the share earning less than $200,000/year has grown to 10.3%. According to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, the share of working families in China rose from 0.6% in 1949 to 6.8% this year. Only 2% of all population had an income on top of income for the last 12 years. The median income for a working-age male in China has more than doubled in five years. Between 1991 and 1997, the average annual income of a working mother for a living rose from about $35,000 in France to more than $120,000 in Mexico. In China, only 2% of working-age Chinese now