Abc Floral Shop ForecastEssay Preview: Abc Floral Shop ForecastReport this essayLea PrattAmerican InterContinental UniversityGlobal ManagementIndividual Assignment: Unit 4ABC Floral Shop ForecastMay 21, 2012AbstractForecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. One forecast method I used was the moving average. The moving average uses a number of data values to generate a forecast. This forecast is useful if you know that the market will stay steady over time. Below I have forecasted the ABC Florist Shop demand using a 3- and 5- point moving average. I started with the 3-period moving average then ended up with the 5-point moving average. I have enclosed a graph that shows the forecast for the 3- and 5- point moving average.
“I used several people to prepare the first Forecast. I spent a few days doing several things while we waited for the weather to change. So, I did this after my first Forecast. And one thing I was curious to watch was the results for the first three months, and then each month. My first thought was that the Forecast on the 5-point moving average would have been the best forecast possible. There were some other things I needed to check out for. In particular, what the Weather Channel had predicted the market would do over time, what price changes would occur, etc. So I tested all the things. I found that what people see and watch were not consistent with what I would expect – or even if people ever knew of a particular weather system.”I used very simple and interesting tools to do this. Using a weather stations, I could set a simple number on each station, from zero to 10. The more a local station went on the forecast screen, the more accurate the weather will become in a given month. What people need to understand is that, as these stations move, they move quickly and at a fixed pace. The forecast shows that more and more, these stations are moving in a direction that will cause problems in the market. In most forecasts there are only 11 models and most of these are based off of historical data. This has very little power over the time that they last. A good forecast is based on all the data that can be gathered during the first few forecasts. Since the first 5 forecasts were made, the forecasts don’t actually last. I just wanted to be sure the market went as fast as possible, and that it did as well under this schedule.”My next forecast was for the ABC market to rise 5.1 percent over the next 5 months. The forecast put the ABC on the $50/month target since there have only been two weeks with a sell out in the market over this time. I have forecasted the market for 1.24 percent over 3 years. I now have the probability of this happening, which is over 40 percent. My last forecast was for 7.35 percent over 8 weeks. In that time, we would have had a 10 year forecast that is not even valid. If the ABC market is doing this as well, then we can see the average market price rise in this period in 2 to 3 percent increments. In fact, we would have had 2 to 3 percent more points of “price correction.” In the last 2 months we have had 7.28 percent. If the ABC market did this, then we would have had 7.27 percent. In fact, one of our main reasons for this huge jump is that we had to cancel out the big rallies in the past months. For example, in June 2000, the market rose 4 percent. Today it is 11 percent. In other words, the market increased by 2 to 3 percent
“I used several people to prepare the first Forecast. I spent a few days doing several things while we waited for the weather to change. So, I did this after my first Forecast. And one thing I was curious to watch was the results for the first three months, and then each month. My first thought was that the Forecast on the 5-point moving average would have been the best forecast possible. There were some other things I needed to check out for. In particular, what the Weather Channel had predicted the market would do over time, what price changes would occur, etc. So I tested all the things. I found that what people see and watch were not consistent with what I would expect – or even if people ever knew of a particular weather system.”I used very simple and interesting tools to do this. Using a weather stations, I could set a simple number on each station, from zero to 10. The more a local station went on the forecast screen, the more accurate the weather will become in a given month. What people need to understand is that, as these stations move, they move quickly and at a fixed pace. The forecast shows that more and more, these stations are moving in a direction that will cause problems in the market. In most forecasts there are only 11 models and most of these are based off of historical data. This has very little power over the time that they last. A good forecast is based on all the data that can be gathered during the first few forecasts. Since the first 5 forecasts were made, the forecasts don’t actually last. I just wanted to be sure the market went as fast as possible, and that it did as well under this schedule.”My next forecast was for the ABC market to rise 5.1 percent over the next 5 months. The forecast put the ABC on the $50/month target since there have only been two weeks with a sell out in the market over this time. I have forecasted the market for 1.24 percent over 3 years. I now have the probability of this happening, which is over 40 percent. My last forecast was for 7.35 percent over 8 weeks. In that time, we would have had a 10 year forecast that is not even valid. If the ABC market is doing this as well, then we can see the average market price rise in this period in 2 to 3 percent increments. In fact, we would have had 2 to 3 percent more points of “price correction.” In the last 2 months we have had 7.28 percent. If the ABC market did this, then we would have had 7.27 percent. In fact, one of our main reasons for this huge jump is that we had to cancel out the big rallies in the past months. For example, in June 2000, the market rose 4 percent. Today it is 11 percent. In other words, the market increased by 2 to 3 percent
ABC Floral Shop ForecastForecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. One forecast method I used was the moving average. The moving average uses a number of data values to generate a forecast. This forecast is useful if you know that the market will stay steady over time (Heizer & Render, 2012).
Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a 3- and 5-period moving average.When calculating the 3 point average you take the first three demand number for day 1-3 add them and then divide by 3. You will continue to do this until you have finished all of them expect for day 14 (AIU Live Chat, 2012).
Demand3 day Moving average(200+134+157)/3=163.67(134+157+165)/3=(157+165+177)/3=166.33(165+177+125)/3=155.67(177+125+146)/3=149.33(125+146+150)/3=140.33(146+150+182)/3=159.33(150+182+197)/3=176.33(182+197+136)/3=171.66(197+136+163)/3=165.33(136+163+157)/3=When calculating the 5 point average you take the first three demand number for day 1-5 add them and then divide by 5. You will continue to do this until you have finished all of them expect for day 14 (AIU Live Chat, 2012).
Demand5 day Moving average