Overview: Oecd Economic Surveys
OECD Economic SurveysJAPANAPRIL 2013OVERVIEW[pic 1][pic 2][pic 3]This document and any map included herein are  without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any   territory, to  the delimitation of  international frontiers and boundaries and to  the name of  any territory, city or area.The   statistical data  for  Israel  are   supplied  by  and  under  the  responsibility of  the  relevant Israeli authorities. The use  of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to  the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Summary© OECD 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1Main findingsAfter two severe shocks – the 2008  global financial crisis and the 2011  Great East  Japan Earthquake – Japan fell  into recession for the third time in five  years. The public debt ratio has risen steadily for  two decades, to over 200% of GDP. Strong and protracted consolidation is therefore necessary to restore fiscal sustainability, which is Japans paramount  policy challenge. However, this  will   slow nominal  GDP growth, making fiscal adjustment  still more difficult. Hence, exiting deflation and  boosting Japan’s growth potential are key   to addressing the fiscal predicament. In  this light, the new government’s resolve to revitalise the economy through a three-pronged strategy combining bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy, is most encouraging.Stopping and reversing the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio is  crucial. Stabilising the public debt ratio by2020  may require, depending on the evolution of GDP and interest rates, an improvement of the primary fiscal balance from a deficit of  9%  of  GDP  in 2012  to a surplus as high as 4%  by  2020.   Controlling expenditures, particularly for social security in the face of  rapid population ageing, is key.  Substantial tax increases will  be  needed as well, although this will  also have a negative impact on growth. Given the size and  duration  of  fiscal consolidation,  Japan faces  the  risk of  a marked rise in interest  rates, threatening a banking system that is highly exposed to Japanese government debt.

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